286
FXUS63 KDMX 090327
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1027 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with a gradual warming trend to end the work week with
  highs in the 80s by the weekend.

- The next chance for precipitation is not expected until at
  least next Wed or Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025

Departing upper low is over MO/IL as of midday and becomes absorbed
by the upper low in the northeast U.S. into tonight leaving upper
ridging continuing to move into the area into Friday. At the
surface, a Great Lakes high pressure also continues to move into the
region into Friday keeping conditions dry and increasingly warmer.
Have continued previous trend of decreasing afternoon dew points and
warming high temperatures this afternoon and again on Friday with
warmest temperatures on Friday in the northwest closest to the
thermal ridge where highs reach into the low to mid 80s. Elsewhere,
70s still prevail to end the week.

A weak northern stream shortwave and associated boundary (previously
discussed a couple days ago) diving through MN on Friday afternoon
kicks off some precipitation chances to the north of the IA/MN state
line but the forecast remains dry in Iowa with ample dry air in
place ahead of the line/boundary and overall minimal moisture to
work with in soundings. Activity is also expected to decay with time
as it progresses through MN with little in the way of instability
remaining by the time the boundary arrives Friday night with
generally weak shear. Can`t rule out some outflow gusty winds
reaching into far northern Iowa with the decaying showers/storms but
forecast soundings and hi-res guidance are not particularly enthused
about this possibility with gusts reaching up to maybe 30 knots for
a brief time.

Little change in the dry/increasingly warmer conditions is expected
into the weekend with upper ridging remaining in place as an upper
low churns over the Gulf Coast area. This low finally dislodges
northward on Monday but looks to stay east of the area with any
precipitation chances. A deepening western trough to start the work
week moves eastward across some portion of the central U.S. into mid
week but guidance remains highly variable in the track and thus
associated precipitation chances but current longer range forecast
brings some shower and storm chances Wednesday into Thursday with
details to be further refined in the coming days. Temperatures
largely in the 80s prevail Saturday and beyond with some locations
northwest approaching upper 80s to even 90 on Sunday. Increasing
winds out of the south will join these warming temperatures with
near daily breezy southerly winds Sunday into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025

Outside of a few high level clouds passing overhead at times,
skies are expected to be mainly clear with VFR conditions
throughout the period. Winds will remain light and variable as
well.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...Bury

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion