FXUS63 KDMX 121058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
558 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Friday/
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

A stretch of very quiet weather is shaping up for the next week or
so. Upper pattern becomes a highly amplified as a large ridge builds
over the western two-thirds of the conus, likely peaking near 600dm
at 500mb over the Four Corners region. The local region will fall
under the influence of dry and mostly laminar northerly flow through
the mid to upper levels. A series of weak surface frontal passages
followed by Canadian high pressure will scour out a fair share of
our typical summer season humidity, dropping dewpoints into the 40
to 50 degree range. Most guidance suggests temperatures will
continue running near to above normal with some days reaching into
the low to mid 90s. The GFS/GEFS mean is running 5 to 10 degrees
cooler over the first half of next week, dropping highs to near the
bottom of the model guidance envelope. Opted to stick with the
warmer NBM for now given the prolonged stretch of warm and dry
conditions. The next chance for any rain likely holds off until
later next week when a northern stream wave tries to break down
the upper ridge. Models are fairly progressive with this system
and deep moisture return is limited, so not anticipating much in
the way of drought relief at this time.


.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning/
Issued at 557 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

VFR conditions prevail through the current TAF period.





NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion