FXUS63 KDMX 021126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
626 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Wednesday/
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Weak surface ridging is sliding north of the state overnight with
light northeast winds in most locations.  Some light fog has
developed recently in southern Iowa with some isolated status as
well. With a few more hours of darkness, the fog and status may
continue to gradually expand, but shouldn`t pose too much of an
issue before daytime heating leads to their demise. Subtle upper
low continues to remains stuck under the upper ridge across
eastern Iowa and this feature remains there today. This is
expected to produce scattered convection today in eastern Iowa
with some of this activity grazing far eastern portions of the
forecast area. However, subsidence is expected in most other
locations through tonight with relatively quiet weather and
temperatures at or slightly above normal. The tranquil conditions
persist into Friday with little change in temperatures as light
easterly flow continues.

The holiday weekend brings some slight warming as winds gradually
become more southerly with readings climbing toward 90 on both days.
The belt of westerlies remains mostly north of Iowa during this time
along with the best threat of storms.  While there remains an
outside chance for storms in the north on both Saturday and Sunday,
the bulk of action is expected to remain in the Dakotas and
Minnesota.  The overall pattern changes little into next week with
the jet axis holding north of Iowa.  Above normal temperatures are
expected with the best threat of any precipitation (relatively
minor) in northern Iowa.  There was some concern yesterday of
intense heat by the end of the week, but model solutions have backed
off considerably and now actually show a cold front pushing through
toward the end of the week with a tendency to go to northwest flow
across the upper Midwest as a western ridge develops.


.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning/
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Areas of fog will produce some MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibilities at the start of the forecast period. However, this
will quickly dissipate this morning with widespread VFR conditions
by midday. The VFR conditions are then expected to persist for the
remainder of the forecast period although some fog is once again
possible by the end of the forecast. Surface winds will generally
be light from the east to southeast.






NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion